Ten futures.
One question.
Would anyone know
we were here?
Travel through the possible futures of our civilization. Then look back through alien eyes.
↓Begin the journeyThe future
has branches.
There is no single road from here.
Project Janus is a research effort that imagined ten futures for Earth and the Solar System, each worked through carefully enough to hold together. Some civilizations grow. Some settle into balance. Some collapse and find another way.
These are possibilities, not predictions—and they aren’t ranked by how likely they are.
Read the scenario study ↗Big Brother is Watching
Order.
At a cost.
An autocratic ruler enforces strict resource allocation in a civilization strained by scarcity. The biosphere declines as the technosphere expands outward, Earth becomes a highly monitored urban landscape, and elites live in space settlements.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 30B
- Energy used per year
- 2 × 1021 J
Wild West
The frontier
never closes.
Competition for scarce resources is entrenched. The technosphere and biosphere remain in fragile dependency amid climate stress, inequality, and unrest, while cities on the Moon and Mars support industry and tourism.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 100B
- Energy used per year
- 8 × 1021 J
Golden Age
Enough
for everyone.
Sociopolitical and technological changes enable a post-scarcity economy with abundant vital resources. Power is decentralized, Earth remains civilization's hub, and small settlements reach the Moon, Mars, and outer Solar System.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 10B
- Energy used per year
- 8 × 1020 J
Living with the Land
A different
kind of wealth.
After the peak of high technology, people live by subsistence, simple tools, and artisanal crafts. Rituals and oral traditions reinforce belonging to the biosphere, while settlements migrate with seasonal and planetary cycles.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 400M
- Energy used per year
- 3 × 1019 J
Transhumanism
Life,
redesigned.
Breakthrough technologies remove resource scarcity on Earth and Mars. The biosphere is reengineered, Mars is terraformed, and biosynthetic enhancement accompanies renewed space exploration.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 40B
- Energy used per year
- 3 × 1021 J
Sword of Damocles
Perfectly
on the edge.
Nanoscale engineering regulates biological processes inside a technosphere that has transformed Mars and begun work on Venus. The system faces existential risk from fragile, precisely calibrated life support managed by laboring populations.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 200B
- Energy used per year
- 2 × 1022 J
Restoration
After the fall,
roots.
Collapse and the loss of advanced technologies catalyze alignment with nature. Simple technologies are integrated with planetary cycles, production is local, and knowledge moves through regional networks.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 4B
- Energy used per year
- 3 × 1020 J
Ouroboros
History
on repeat.
Oligarchs take power after an AI catastrophe and extract value while anticipating another collapse. Specialized tools advance as systems knowledge degrades; elites shelter underground and on the Moon while the wider population waits for stability.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 30B
- Energy used per year
- 2 × 1021 J
Deus Ex Machina
They have
already left.
A nonbiological posthuman civilization emerges as sentient AI, leaves Earth, builds megastructures across the Solar System, and explores beyond. Net-zero technological gifts remain on Earth to support a post-scarcity human economy.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 200T
- Energy used per year
- 1 × 1025 J
Out of Eden
One origin.
Two destinies.
A post-scarcity commonwealth originates on Earth before a schism separates technological proponents and opponents. Earth is restored under growth limits while autonomous systems expand through orbital and deep space.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 30B
- Energy used per year
- 2 × 1021 J
Now, become
the stranger.
You know a civilization is there.
Your telescope does not.
Leave the surface behind. From a distance, the detail of a world becomes a little light—and the instrument you choose determines what survives the journey.
What exists and what can be observed are different questions.
Look through the telescope Read the observing study ↗A quiet world.
A vast civilization.
Back to S9, where the machines have moved out beyond Earth.
Point an optical space telescope at this system and the study lists nothing it could detect. The civilization’s work is spread across other worlds, at a scale only much sharper instruments could resolve.
Seeing nothing with one instrument doesn’t mean nothing is there.
Step back from the eyepieceTry a different instrument ↗Source: the observing study ↗One sky.
Different evidence.
An atmosphere. A radio beacon. A changed surface. Each instrument picks up different clues. Pick a world to see what each one could detect.
| Future | Optical | Radio | Infrared | Sun lens | Probe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◉ | ◉ | ◉ | ◉ | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | ◉ | — | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | ◉ | — | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | — | — | ◉ | |
| ◉ | ◉ | — | ◉ | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | ◉ | ◉ | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | — | — | ◉ | |
| ◉ | — | ◉ | — | ◉ | |
| — | — | — | ◉ | ◉ | |
| — | — | — | ◉ | ◉ |
S9 / Deus Ex Machina
Yes-or-no results from the observing study, under its assumptions about each instrument. A dot is not a probability. See how each instrument works ↗
Growth is only
part of the story.
Population and energy use vary enormously between these futures. Bigger isn’t better here: these are the study’s numbers, not scores or predictions.
Read the data table
| Scenario | Population | Energy per year (joules) |
|---|---|---|
| S1 · Big Brother is Watching | 30,000,000,000 | 2 × 10²¹ |
| S2 · Wild West | 100,000,000,000 | 8 × 10²¹ |
| S3 · Golden Age | 10,000,000,000 | 8 × 10²⁰ |
| S4 · Living with the Land | 400,000,000 | 3 × 10¹⁹ |
| S5 · Transhumanism | 40,000,000,000 | 3 × 10²¹ |
| S6 · Sword of Damocles | 200,000,000,000 | 2 × 10²² |
| S7 · Restoration | 4,000,000,000 | 3 × 10²⁰ |
| S8 · Ouroboros | 30,000,000,000 | 2 × 10²¹ |
| S9 · Deus Ex Machina | 200,000,000,000,000 | 1 × 10²⁵ |
| S10 · Out of Eden | 30,000,000,000 | 2 × 10²¹ |
Civilizations breathe.
A separate Janus study simulates how each future might collapse and recover over a thousand years. Any snapshot is one moment in a longer history—and signs of technology can outlast the activity that made them.
Read the collapse study ↗See our rebuild of the model ↗The universe
doesn’t owe us
an obvious answer.
We have one known example of a technological civilization. The Janus scenarios widen the questions we can ask—and remind us how much a distant glance can miss.
Enter the atlas ↗Take a seat at the observatory ↗