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JANUSOBSERVATORY

Research appendix · independent reimplementation

Collapse results need two labels.

A separate experiments-track implementation of the CC BY collapse-recovery equations, validated against only the aggregates the paper reports in prose. It is not author code and it never replaces canonical reported values.

Reported versus reimplemented

Null stays null. Approximate stays approximate.

Large-ensemble independent outputs beside available prose-reported targets. Missing targets are not inferred from figure heights.
ScenarioIndependent duty cycleReported duty cycleIndependent collapsesReported collapsesComparison
S10.631not stated in prose9.7310.00pass
S20.610not stated in prose5.95not stated in prosepass
S31.0001.0000.000.00pass
S40.3820.3816.636.60pass
S50.9900.9900.50not stated in prosepass
S60.794not stated in prose4.264.50pass
S70.5800.5707.377.50pass
S80.8730.8701.942.00pass
S90.9110.9101.471.50pass
S101.0001.0000.000.00pass

What is reported

Paper parameters and prose aggregates

The canonical layer transcribes Table 4 parameters and exact or safely rounded values from the paper prose. Figure-only values remain null.

What is independent

Equations, step semantics, seeded ensembles

The experiment implements Equations 1–3 from the publication. Hazard tie-breaking, recovery timing, uncertainty distributions, and extinction behavior are explicit independent choices covered by its ADR and tests.

Limits that remain

  • This is an independent implementation from the CC BY paper equations, not official author code.
  • Year-step ambiguities are fixed by the experiment ADR and remain implementation choices.
  • Only prose-reported aggregates are validated; figure-only nulls are not guessed.
  • The author-hosted code and aggregate CSV remain link-only because they declare no license.