Scenario status
Project Janus scenarios are self-consistent possibilities for the technosphere—not forecasts, probabilities, or a ranking. Spatial layout, color, and order in this site do not encode likelihood.
Canonical data path
- Reported sourceVersioned scholarly paper, exact table or figure locator.
- TranscriptionNormalized JSON preserves units, significant digits, ellipses, and notes.
- Runtime validationZod schemas reject missing records, malformed cells, and incomplete provenance.
- PresentationComponents consume canonical records; scientific values are not component literals.
Observatory model
This release is a categorical lookup, not a speculative telescope simulator. It resolves all ten scenarios across five observing concepts from Technosignature detectability with future missions. A blank figure cell is displayed as “no signature listed.” It never becomes “no technology.”
Distance and integration remain locked to the source study preset because no validated continuous model is available. Atmosphere values come from Table 1. No PDF-digitized spectrum is presented as raw spectral data.
Collapse and recovery
The repository contains the paper’s reported parameters and selected aggregate outcomes: 200 runs per scenario over 1000 years. The paper links the authors’ public technocycles repository at audited commit 910770d. Its notebook fixes the main Monte Carlo seed at 12345, uses 54321 for sensitivity batches, and commits an aggregate CSV. It does not commit per-run trajectories or declare a software/data license, so neither code nor CSV is bundled or used as canonical runtime data. The Observatory implementation remains independent and must never be labeled official Janus code.
Independent validation report
Reimplemented evidence, outside the canonical release.
The generated experiment report is explicitly reimplemented and noncanonical. Its overall pass means that 29 of 29 metric/scenario comparisons with a published target met the recorded tolerance. It does not turn an absent source target into evidence: 11 comparisons remain not_validated.
This is an independent check against published comparison targets—not an official author replication. The authors’ code and aggregate data remain unbundled, and no unavailable per-run source trajectories are implied.
| Scenario | Published targets | No published target | Bounded result |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 pass |
| S2 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 pass |
| S3 | 4 | 0 | 4/4 pass |
| S4 | 3 | 1 | 3/3 pass |
| S5 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 pass |
| S6 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 pass |
| S7 | 4 | 0 | 4/4 pass |
| S8 | 3 | 1 | 3/3 pass |
| S9 | 4 | 0 | 4/4 pass |
| S10 | 4 | 0 | 4/4 pass |
Evidence vocabulary
- reported
- Directly stated in a source.
- transcribed
- Normalized from a source into canonical data.
- derived
- Deterministic calculation from sourced inputs.
- reimplemented
- Independent model based on a published method.
- editorial
- Observatory explanation or classification.
- interpretive
- Art-directed extrapolation from scenario prose.
- fictional
- In-world artifact or narrative content.
- model_generated
- AI output; never canonical.