Optical space telescope
- CO2 + NO2
- Na emission
Reflected light
Illustration of future S1. A uniform, rationed city covers the land and spills onto sea platforms, watched from one central tower and a lattice of monitoring satellites. Smog dims the planet while elites circle above in clean orbital settlements. The description and data are on this page.
- Population in 1,000 years
- 30 billion≈ 3.8 × the study’s Earth population
- Energy used per year
- 2 thousand EJ a year≈ 3.4 × the study’s Earth energy use2 × 10²¹ joules a year
- Trend
- Growing
- Growth rate
- 0.12% a year
What is “the study’s Earth”?
The scenario study measures every future against a fixed Earth: 7.9 billion people, each using 75 gigajoules of energy a year (592.5 EJ per year in total). An exajoule (EJ) is a billion billion joules.
The multipliers are rounded and count every world a civilization lives on. The reference is the study’s model, not a measurement of Earth today, and says nothing about how many people a planet can support.
Planetary technosignatures: industrial pollution scaling, p. 12 ↗Table 9 caption and Section 5.1, p. 18 ↗
What this future is like.
How the scenario study describes this civilization. Where it offers more than one option, both are shown. Each line links to the table it came from.
| Economy | ScarcityTable 2, p. 5 ↗ |
|---|---|
| Politics | Rule by oneTable 2, p. 5 ↗ |
| Society | HierarchicalTable 2, p. 5 ↗ |
| Technology and nature | They partly overlapIn the paper: Some common elements with the biosphere; neither set is equalTable 4, p. 7 ↗ |
| Centers of technology | One centerIn the paper: UnipolarTable 4, p. 7 ↗ |
| How technology develops | Evolved and emergentTable 4, p. 7 ↗ |
| Smallest engineering scale | 1 nm to 1 μmTable 4, p. 7 ↗ |
What a telescope could see.
Five instruments, from the observing study. “Nothing listed” means the study lists no sign for that instrument—not that this civilization has no technology.
Reflected light
Radio telescope array
- radio beacon
Radio signals
Infrared telescope array
- CO2 + CFC-11/12
Thermal glow
Sun-as-a-lens telescope
- large surface features (Earth)
Resolved surface imaging
Visiting space probe
- large surface features (Earth, Mars)
Close-up exploration
Marks on each world.
Pollution, night lights, reshaped land, satellites and haze on Earth, the Moon, Mars and Venus, compared with Earth today. Each kind of mark keeps its own units; we don’t squash them onto one scale.
| World | Mark | Amount | Measured as | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earth | Industrial pollution | 79 | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Industrial pollution | 5.7 | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Industrial pollutionS5 and S6 include artificial greenhouse gases for terraforming Mars. | 0.12 | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Industrial pollutionS5 and S6 indicate O2 production and depletion of other constituents for terraforming Venus. | Not given | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Earth | Agricultural pollution | Not given | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Agricultural pollution | Not given | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Agricultural pollution | Not given | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Agricultural pollution | Not given | abundance relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Earth | Artificial illumination | 160 | intensity relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Artificial illumination | 11 | intensity relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Artificial illumination | 0.23 | intensity relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Artificial illumination | Not given | intensity relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Earth | Surface modification | 0.31 | fraction of planetary surface | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Surface modification | 0.3 | fraction of planetary surface | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Surface modification | 0.0009 | fraction of planetary surface | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Surface modification | Not given | fraction of planetary surface | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Earth | Satellite belt | 1000000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Satellite belt | 100000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Satellite belt | 10000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Satellite belt | 10 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Earth | Contaminated aerosol | 1000000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Moon | Contaminated aerosol | 100000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Mars | Contaminated aerosol | 10000 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
| Venus | Contaminated aerosol | 10 | density relative to Earth 2024 | Table 6, p. 14 ↗ |
Beyond Earth, and over time.
Signs of technology across the Solar System come from the scenario study. Collapse and recovery come from a separate study that simulates each future for 1,000 years.
Signs beyond Earth
- Radio leakage
- Optical communication
- Planetary defense radar
- Asteroid mining
- Fusion propulsion
- Outer planet settlements
- Radio beacon
- Optical beacon
Collapse and recovery
Collapses in every run; first collapse occurs within 200 years on average and the scenario undergoes nearly 10 collapses.
- Time spent active
- Not stated in the text
- Collapses
- About 10 on average
- How precise
- Approximate, from the paper’s text
The air on this Earth.
The gases and temperature the observing study gives this future’s Earth. Where the paper leaves a value out, we show “Not given” rather than zero.
Show the atmosphere table
| Gas or property | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Temperature | 300 | K | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| CO2 | 11000 | ppm | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| CH4 | 0.57 | ppm | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| NOx | 150 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| N2O | 170 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| NH3 | 2 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| CFC-11 | 18 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| CFC-12 | 41 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| NF3 | 200 | ppt | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| SF6 | 870 | ppt | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| CF4 | 4100 | ppt | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| SO2, Stratospheric | 16 | ppb | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| Na Emission | 18.2 | erg s^-1 cm^-2 | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
| Laser Emission, 1.064 um | 10 | MW | Table 1, p. 4 ↗ |
Objects from this world.
Stories and objects artists made inside this future. They’re fiction, not evidence. Works whose creators reserve all rights are linked, never copied here.
No artists’ objects are listed for S1 yet.